The much-anticipated bitcoin ETF, which has been going through the bureaucratic process for now more than three years, will likely be rejected according to a Bitmex prediction contract launched almost two weeks ago.Since its listing, the market has always given Winklevoss’ ETF a less than 50% chance, usually standing at around 40% for much of the past week, falling to as low as 18% yesterday.There were suggestions its sharp drop was due to a bug, but Greg Dwyer, Business Development Manager at BitMEX, told CCN: “There have been no bugs with the ETF prediction market and it is operating exactly as intended.It is currently trading in a range between 24 – 37%.That is, the price represents the probability of the ETF being approved by the SEC come March 11.” Spencer Bogart, Vice President of Equity Research for Needham & Co, gave the ETF only a 25% chance of approval.The main reason appears to be due to bitcoin’s volatile nature, but stock markets have previously crashed, some company stocks have instantly become worthless and some have instantly jumped in price.

Furthermore, Kevin Lu, a hedge fund analyst, describes in a detailed article for Seeking Alpha how “Bitcoin is a unique, uncorrelated asset class… and that makes bitcoin extremely desirable from a portfolio construction perspective.” The SEC’s thinking on the matter is not quite clear.ethereum currency symbolWe have reached out for comments, but have received no response in time for publishing.ethereum illegalSEC personnel has just changed or is in the process of changing.bitcoin wallet theftAs such, the decision might be made in somewhat chaotic circumstances with the new personnel potentially not fully up to speed on the fairly complicated matter.setup bitcoin pool server

To illustrate, SEC’s page still lists the old chair, but President Trump has chosen a new nominee, Walter J. Clayton, described by the New York Times as “the Wall Street Lawyer” and as “the insider’s insider.” It further states: “He had a front-row seat to the financial crisis, advising Barclays Capital in buying the assets of the bankrupt Lehman Brothers in 2008 and Bear Stearns in its fire sale to JPMorgan Chase in 2007.modify bitcoin walletHe has advised on mergers and initial public offerings, including the biggest ever, the $25 billion offering by Alibaba Group of China in 2013.” Whether that experience makes him more favorable to bitcoin or more against it, remains to be seen, but the new administration does have some bitcoin supporters in its cabinet and emphasizes de-regulation with the aim of fostering economic growth.bitcoin will unite us

However, Clayton himself, a law graduate, has not previously made any comments on bitcoin.He will soon be familiar with the digital currency, if he is not already, and will most probably be a very influential figure in this space.The ETF decision, whether approved or rejected, will have considerable implications.litecoin current hash rateEqually, and perhaps more importantly, he might eventually want to give some sort of guidelines on the currently booming ICO markets.bitcoin mining turkeyFinally, the new administration might wish to allow margins and futures trading on regulated exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini for its refusal by inaction so far has forced many to use somewhat shady and seemingly amateurish exchanges which has led to losses, opening the relevant agencies to criticism for failing to protect the public and worse, for indirectly causing the losses.doação bitcoin

Whether they will take any such action is too early to say, but we might soon get a glimpse of the new administration’s approach towards digital currencies, the blockchain space and, more widely, the Fintech industry.It’s a bit metaphysical -- even for a virtual currency.Speculators can bet on whether the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust (COIN), developed by the venture capitalist twins who were involved in a long-running legal battle over the ownership of Facebook, will be approved as the first exchange-traded fund to track a digital currency by the U.S.Securities and Exchange Commission.Such wagers can only be placed and settled in Bitcoin, naturally, on the BitMEX platform, which offers the ability to trade certain cryptocurrency derivatives with “up to 100x leverage.” The Winklevoss’s personal edition of March Madness happens in three weeks, with the decision on whether the SEC approves the $100-million offering due March 11.“There’s rarely ever interest in filings, let alone the hype associated with this one, let alone betting on whether it’ll be approved!”

said Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.Bitcoin has surged 14 percent in the past two weeks to approach all-time highs, with interest in owning the currency remaining strong in China even after authorities there tightened conversion controls in an attempt to curb capital outflows.Asia’s largest economy is home to most of the world’s bitcoin trades.As of Tuesday morning, the prediction contract’s pricing implied a 36.37 percent chance that the proposal, which has been tweaked about a dozen times over a registration battle that’s stretched over three years, will be successful.The twins, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, became famous as a foil to Mark Zuckerberg, whom they alleged in a lawsuit had used their source code to build the site that would become Facebook Inc.The case for denial of the product rests primarily in the history of security breaches this asset class has suffered, most infamously the Mt.More recently, hackers helped themselves to about $65 million worth of the virtual currency in August 2016.

“When the SEC approves a product, they’re saying it’s ready for prime time for Middle America,” Balchunas said.“And that may be what trumps it all here: by approving it, the SEC would be legitimizing this product for retail investors.”The long registration process may have already taken its toll on the Winklevoss bid to attract investors.The digital currency has gained more than 1,000 percent against the dollar since their initial prospectus was filed.And when it comes to asset-gathering in ETFs, “if you ain’t first, you’re last,” to quote the father of a fictional race-car driver.The first ETF approved to track gold, the SPDR Gold Trust, has roughly four times as many assets as the second, Balchunas said.A competing offering proposed by SolidX would attempt to alleviate regulators’ security concerns on bitcoin-backed products by offering insurance against theft of the underlying asset.Greyscale Investments, which elected to forgo the SEC process in issuing the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) as an over-the-counter product, has seen its open-ended grantor trust trade at a hefty premium to the spot price of the underlying asset, reducing its potential appeal.