Bitcoin followers are assigning far too high a likelihood that regulators will OK a fund that tracks the cryptocurrency, which is too bad because approval would provide a major boost to its price, according to one analyst.Regulators at the Securities and Exchange Commission are weighing whether to approve an exchange-traded fund proposed by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss.The SEC has been considering a proposal that came into being more than three years ago.The Winklevoss brothers are looking to list the ETF on the Bats exchange.Should the fund gain approval, it would attract a flood of investor cash that could hit $300 million, according to investment bank Needham and Co.The total value of bitcoins in circulation was $13.8 billion as of Tuesday afternoon trading.That's the good news.The bad news is that Needham analysts believe there is very little chance the SEC actually will go ahead and approve the ETF.They say the chances are probably less than 25 percent."In contrast to most of the people that we speak to in the industry, we think the probability that a bitcoin ETF will be approved in 2017 is very low," analyst Spencer Bogart said in a research note.

"To be clear, we don't see any specific reason to disapprove the Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF, but, instead, think that the confluence of fear, uncertainty and doubt coupled with basic incentives at the SEC will make it very difficult to get approval."bitcoin payout calcThat could come as news to many of bitcoin's avid followers who believe the fund will be approved by March 11, which has been set as the deadline for a ruling.bitcoin center manhattanBitcoin was created more than eight years ago as a digital currency and is accepted by more than 100,000 vendors for payment.bitcoin center manhattanIt has generated controversy through its use in the underworld and because of several high-profile bitcoin thefts.bitcoin paper wallet reddit

"We think the positive effect that a bitcoin ETF would have on the price of bitcoin is vastly underappreciated, and that the probability of approval is drastically overestimated within the industry," Bogart wrote.sell bitcoin with skrillNot to worry, however.bitcoin mining using ubuntuRegardless of whether the ETF becomes reality, Bogart said bitcoin will be fine.silver faucet bitcoinBitcoin recently hit a brief peak above $1,000 and is up 102 percent over the past 12 months.bitcoin gadget windows xpThe Winklevoss brothers did not immediately respond to a request for comment "Overall, this is a low probability event with a very significant upside," Bogart said of the ETF.bitcoin atm 1000

"Ultimately, while it appears there is significant pent-up demand from the investment public for such a vehicle, bitcoin itself certainly doesn't need an ETF and will continue on regardless of the SEC's decision."Analysts from prominent financial institutions including Bloomberg believe that the probability of the Winklevoss twins’ Bitcoin ETF COIN being approved is fairly high, due to the unpredictable nature of the US Securities Exchange Commission.There exist many developing parts to the approval of the COIN ETF.Some of these parts could play a major factor that could encourage the SEC to approve the world’s first Bitcoin ETF and the rest of the moving parts could completely eliminate the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF being introduced to the public.Based on the SEC’s past decisions and attitude towards innovative ETFs, it is difficult to favor the Winklevoss twins for the approval of their COIN ETF.However, the involvement of a well-respected $30 bln financial institution and the participation of analysts independent of the SEC and the Winklevoss twins, such as quant traders from KCG and Susquehanna, gives hope.

Over the past few years, Bitcoin has been described as digital gold.It is yet to achieve its full technological potential to operate as an efficient and cheap settlement network.Therefore, the vast majority of Bitcoin users as of current are utilizing the Bitcoin network to protect their wealth and to settle large transactions that weren’t previously possible without the presence of a mediator.As Bloomberg Intelligence Sr.ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas explains, the SEC introduced ETFs in the past which opened up new markets that didn’t generate as much attraction and interest from the industry at the time.An example of such an ETF is the ASHR, which was approved by the SEC before US companies came about to trade.“The odds for and against are so evenly matched.You’ve got possible regulation, liquidity and security issues, but on the reasons for, ETFs have this long history of opening up new markets.A great example of an ETF that was approved by the SEC is ASHR.That was approved before any US companies had a quota.” Like Spencer Bogart, vice president of equity research at Needham & Co, mentioned before, the odds against the Bitcoin ETF approval is evenly matched because of the fact that the officials of the SEC who will approve the ETF don’t receive any incentive for the performance of the ETF.

But, if the ETF fails and the market destabilizes, the officials who approved the ETF will be made responsible for its downfall.Until the approval date, Balchunas stated that the probability of the Bitcoin ETF being approved would be at 50 percent.The Bitcoin industry and community are quite optimistic towards the approval of the Bitcoin ETF primarily because of the efforts of the Winklevoss twins in bringing in a reputable financial institution in State Street to essentially operate the ETF and take charge of the auditing process.One advantage the ETF structure Balchunas sees is its premium on Bitcoin which is significantly cheaper than existing public Bitcoin instruments.As seen in Bitcoin over-the-counter (OTC) market instruments like the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC), Bitcoin in major regulated markets are usually traded with high premiums.Currently, GBTC is trading at $129 per share, which represents a price of $1,290 for one Bitcoin.In the global market, Bitcoin is being traded at $1,250.