by Tyler Durden Among the big drivers behind the recent move higher in the price of bitcoin - in addition to the traditional "capital outflow" demand out of China - has been widespread hope that the SEC will approve the first bitcoin ETF.And contrary to our report from January that such a decision, and ETF, will be delayed substantially, today Coindesk writes that according to its sources, the ETF decision is expected, either affirming or denying, by Friday.The SEC has a March 11th internal deadline, Coindesk reported, to decide on the proposed rule change that would clear the way for the ETF, which would be the first of its kind.However, as the 11th falls on a Saturday, that decision will come before that date, "potentially before Friday", the source said.The decision would cap a more than three-year period since investors Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss first filed with the SEC in mid-2013.In case of a favorable outcome, some analysts and traders have speculated that bitcoin markets could rise as a result, although considering the recent ramp in BTC's price in recent weeks, the news may have been priced in and holders may instead sell the news.

Bitcoin's price has approached $1,300 in recent sessions, rising above $1,290 on March 3rd.However, the price has kept sliding, eventually experiencing a sharp drop on Tuesday as reported earlier on fresh concerns about China, when BTC briefly traded back under the price of one ounce of gold.On the other hand, analysts have argued that, should the SEC reject the rule change that would allow the Bats Global Exchange to list the ETF, bitcoin's price could be negatively affected.Phil Bak, who was previously a New York Stock Exchange managing director and currently serves as CEO for ETF issuer ACSI Funds, told CoinDesk that, generally, the SEC seeks to avoid the appearance of "publicly rejecting an ETF."He went on to argue that, if the agency didn't plan on approving one of these funds, it would likely ask for the filing to be pulled ahead of any final decision.Yet according to Bak, the lack of such a pullback so close to the deadline could be driven by other factors specific to the bitcoin ETF.

"In this case, the government agency may want to show the world it is unsure about bitcoin.Alternatively, it could also be that the advocates want to support it to the end and let this proposed fund get its day in court, rejection or not" Bak explained.Others believe the odds of either outcome are about even: Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of exchange platform BitMEX, said "I have heard good arguments for and against the ETF being approved.At this point it is a coin toss."bitcoin widget appleHayes' exchange is home to an ETF-tied prediction market, where traders can essentially bet on the outcome of the decision, and that has seen significant fluctuations over the past month.bitcoin conference 2013 londonAt times, traders have given the fund estimated chances of between 2% and 70%, depending on the day.bitcoin sierra chart

At press time, the prediction market shows a roughly 50% estimated chance of approval.Charles Hayter, co-founder and CEO of CryptoCompare, offered similar sentiment, stating that the fund's odds of receiving approval are "more than likely plucked out of the air on this one".Those close to the industry aren't the only ones comparing the SEC decision to a coin flip.Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas has similarly argued that the ETF has about a 50-50 chance of receiving approval.While there is much money to be made (or lost) depending which way the SEC rules, the waiting is almost over.... or perhaps not.casino evolution bitcoinEven if the Coinbase source is accurate, and the SEC has an approaching deadling, one analyst has warned that those hoping for a conclusion to the years-long process might not get an answer until after that date.bitcoin idr chart

and ETF expert, speculated that the SEC could punt its decision further past the 11th, particularly in light of recent price gains."I have the feeling they will find a way to delay this even more though.With bitcoin at all-time highs and the SEC having a terrible record for allowing new ETFs to come to market at absolute tops, they will likely push back on this until things cool a bit," he said.For his part, Bishop believes the ETF should be approved."It should be up to investors to decide the true price of bitcoin.bitcoin idahoThe more liquidity and options [there are] to trade it, the more transparent and accurate the pricing will be."ethereum price etcMike Hearn, a prominent developer of the cryptocurrency, has sold his coins and quit work on bitcoin citing deep-seated issues A senior bitcoin developer has declared the cryptocurrency a failed experiment, blaming the end of the currency on the refusal of the community to adopt new standards which would allow it to grow consistently while maintaining stability.bitcoin miner github

Mike Hearn, a longtime senior developer on bitcoin and the former chair of the bitcoin foundation’s law and policy committee, announced in a blogpost that he would be selling his coins and quitting development on the project.“Despite knowing that bitcoin could fail all along, the now inescapable conclusion that it has failed still saddens me greatly,” he wrote.Hearn’s objections to the current state of bitcoin are varied and frequently technical in nature, but at heart there are two failures: the section of the bitcoin community with power over the future of the currency is overly centralised and overly resistant to change.ethereum coin earnHearn writes that: “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked ‘systemically important institutions’ and ‘too big to fail’ has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.” There are two important bottlenecks in bitcoin’s organisational structure: the developers and the miners.

The former group are those people with the authority to make changes to the released version of bitcoin (the “core”).Although bitcoin is open source software, meaning anyone is free to use it or tweak it into a new system, there is still only one official release of it.Anyone can propose changes to that release, but only five people have the authority to actually put those changes into the released version – and those five have been hopelessly split for the past six months about how to deal with bitcoin’s capacity problems as it grows.The split has become so bad that Gavin Andresen, the most senior of the developers, paired with Hearn in August to attempt to launch a “hard fork” of bitcoin, which would use the same basic code but fix some of the capacity constraints.That launch merely exacerbated the split, however, with people who supported the new version (dubbed bitcoin XT) being blacklisted by the supporters of the old version.But the main reason why XT never took off was the failure of the other major bottleneck: the miners.

Bitcoin is supposed to be a decentralised currency.Anyone can download the entire history of bitcoin transactions, and devote computing power to verifying future transactions (called mining).For a change such as the switch to XT to succeed, more than half of the computing power on the bitcoin network has to support it by updating their own software accordingly.But very few people bother to mine for bitcoin.It’s expensive in terms of computer hardware, time and electricity so it is very difficult to beat professionally equipped outlets in the race for rewards.Those amateurs who do mine largely do so as part of pools, who share both computing power and rewards.Those pools, however, are also centrally controlled.As a result, Hearn points out, just two individuals control more than 50% of the power of the network.He adds that “over 95% of hashing power was controlled by a handful of guys sitting on a single stage” at a recent bitcoin conference.For their own reasons, the miners, who are largely based in China, are reluctant to switch to a competing implementation of bitcoin, or push for changes.