The requested URL /?p=1846 was not found on this server.Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.At the beginning of every year, I make predictions.At the end of every year, I score them.So here are a hundred more for 2017.US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60% 2.North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95% 3.No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90% 4.…in any First World country: 80% 5.Assad will remain President of Syria: 80% 6.Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90% 7.No major intifada in Israel this year (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80% 8.No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 90% 9.No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90% 10.

Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70% 11.Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 60% 12.ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90% 13.ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 50% 14.No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90% 15.Libya to remain a mess: 80% 16.Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80% 17.No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95% 18.No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99% 19.No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90% 20.No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such: 90% 21.EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun: 70% 22.A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works: 80% 23.

A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work: 60% 24.No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US: 99% 25.No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world: 60% 26.Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair: 70% EUROPE 27.No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80% 28.France does not declare plan to leave EU: 95% 29.Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99% 30.No agreement reached on “two-speed EU”: 80% 31.The UK triggers Article 50: 90% 32.Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 60% 33.Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 60% 34.Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 80% 35.Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: 95% ECONOMICS 36.Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000: 60% 37.Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60% 38.…but lower than $60 a barrel: 60% 39.Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 50% 40.

Shanghai index will not fall > 10% this year: 50% TRUMP ADMINISTRATION 41.bitcoin in hyderabadDonald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 90% 42.fundacion bitcoin chileNo serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 80% 43.china steps up bitcoin battleConstruction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80% 44.bitcoin worth audTrump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90% 45.bitcointalk 8 bitUS GDP growth lower than in 2016: 60% 46.ethereum crowdfunding

US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60% 47.US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA: 90% 48.buy litecoin by visaUS does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy: 95% 49.bitcoin arrest australiaNo race riot killing > 5 people: 95% 50.bitcoin hourly investmentUS lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia: 70% 51.Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80% 52.…lower than forty percent: 60% COMMUNITIES 53.SSC will remain active: 95% 54.SSC will get fewer hits than in 2016: 60% 55.At least one SSC post > 100,000 hits: 70% 56.I will complete an LW/SSC survey: 80% 57.I will finish a long FAQ this year: 60% 58.

Shireroth will remain active: 70% 59.No co-bloggers (with more than 5 posts) on SSC by the end of this year: 80% 60.Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of this year: 90% 61.> 15,000 Twitter followers by end of this year: 80% 62.I won’t stop using Twitter, Tumblr, or Facebook: 90% 63.I will attend the Bay Area Solstice next year: 90% 64.…some other Solstice: 60% 65.…not the New York Solstice: 60% WORK 66.I will take the job I am currently expecting to take: 90% 67.…at the time I am expecting to take it, without any delays: 80% 68.I will like the job and plan to continue doing it for a while: 70% 69.I will pass my Boards: 90% 70.I will be involved in at least one published/accepted-to-publish research paper by the end of 2017: 50% 71.I will present a research paper at the regional conference: 80% 72.I will attend the APA national meeting in San Diego: 90% 73.

None of my outpatients to be hospitalized for psychiatric reasons during the first half of 2017: 50% 74.None of my outpatients to be involuntarily committed to psych hospital by me during the first half of 2017: 70% 75.None of my outpatients to attempt suicide during the first half of 2017: 90% 76.I will not have scored 95th percentile or above when I get this year’s PRITE scores back: 60% PERSONAL 77.Amazon will not harass me to get the $40,000 they gave me back: 80% 78.…or at least will not be successful: 90% 79.I will drive cross-country in 2017: 70% 80.I will travel outside the US in 2017: 70% 81.…to Europe: 50% 82.I will not officially break up with any of my current girlfriends: 60% 83.K will spend at least three months total in Michigan this year: 70% 84.I will get at least one new girlfriend: 70% 85.I will not get engaged: 90% 86.I will visit the Bay in May 2017: 60% 87.I will have moved to the Bay Area: 99% 88.

I won’t live in Godric’s Hollow for at least two weeks continuous: 70% 89.I won’t live in Volterra for at least two weeks continuous: 70% 90.I won’t live in the Bailey for at least two weeks continuous: 95% 91.I won’t live in some other rationalist group home for at least two weeks continuous: 90% 92.I will be living in a house (incl group house) and not apartment building at the end of 2017: 60% 93.I will still not have gotten my elective surgery: 90% 94.I will not have been hospitalized (excluding ER) for any other reason: 95% 95.I will make my savings target at the end of 2017: 60% 96.I will not be taking any nootropic (except ZMA) daily or near-daily during any 2-month period this year: 90% 97.I won’t publicly and drastically change highest-level political/religious/philosophical positions (eg become a Muslim or Republican): 90% 98.I will not get drunk this year: 80% 99.I get at least one article published on a major site like Huffington Post or Vox or New Statesman or something: 50% 100.