Technical indicators can be useful, but I’d rather you focus on patterns like THESE.Anyway, here’s a guest blog post from a new trading challenge student who loooooves technical indicators:Moving averages are a common and useful technical indicator.The two most common varieties are the simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA).A moving average is an average of x past data points.You will see things like SMA(20) or some other number.That means it averages 20 past pieces of information.This number is calculated at each interval and plotted and then a line drawn to go through all the points.A simple average weights all the data points equally in the average.The exponential moving average placing greater weight on the more recent data points.Download the key points of this post as PDF.For our purposes here the simple moving average is enough, but everything applies to both the SMA and the EMA for the most part.Preference dictates who prefers what.The SMA is not usually one line.

Most traders will use two or three.Normally, it is some combination of the 20, 50, 100, and 200.It is the 100 that is the rarer one.A lot of times you will see people refer to the numbers as daily moving averages, and you might see people falling into the trap of always calling it the 100-day moving average or something else.If the moving average is calculated with the daily information then it is accurate, but if it is just the last 100 data points then it could be anything from 100 5-minute bars to 100 1-hour bars.Normally the scale the chart lets you know the information, but advanced charting software can plot the 100-day moving average on a chart with only 5-minute candles.When looking for your signals be aware of the data that you are analyzing so as not to draw false conclusions or have false confidence regarding conclusions.Crosses are major trading signals that refer to a faster moving average crossing a slower one.This can be in the upward direction or the downward direction.Crosses are usually only useful when the candlesticks represent one day.

Crosses like the 50-day moving average crossing the 100-day moving average can be a significant change in the recent trend.Crosses are significant enough that there are websites, newsletters, and guys on twitter that mention them when they happen.bitcoin vietnam lua daoValidity of crosses as a law of the universe notwithstanding a lot of traders and investors pay attention to the crosses.bitcoin core change walletA lot of significant movement can happen a short time after a cross.raven bitcoinThe trend might be long-lived but could have corrections and other similar things.wie bitcoin generierenA cross can indicate the change of a multi-month trend.sell bitcoin amsterdam

A trader can be in and out quickly with a nice profit, and move on.Long-term investors take the risk of corrections or false positives in an attempt to manage greater gains over time.Traders can use the sentiment attached to crosses to grab a few percentage points of gains.The opposite of crosses are bounces.bitcoin taxationThis is when the faster moving average (SMA 50 is faster than SMA 100), bounces off the slower moving average.This means that a short-term trend contrary to the long-term is not going to turn into a long-term trend.The share price will continue on the long-term term trend after going down and bouncing off the slower average.The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are seen as levels of support.This is done in two ways.First, the moving average can bounce.The 50 can bounce off the 100 meaning that the larger trend is intact despite the recent foray in the other direction.You can also use the moving average as a support for the actual candle.

The candles interact with the moving averages just like other moving averages.The slower average can be seen as forming a level of support for the actual price not just the other moving average, and the use of the candle versus another moving average is quicker but riskier.As you can see moving averages can be quite flexible, it is up to the trader to use them.Even if you do not believe in the power of charting or technical indicators as being as certain as gravity the market pays attention to these commonly held beliefs and signals.Traders use sentiment to their benefit, and moving averages form some of the most commonly used indicators out there.It is right up there with the RSI and MACD.The rest of the indicators like stochastics are used far more rarely.The prevalence of these indicators is probably due to ease of use and clarity of their signals.The question of their usefulness compared to other indicators is uncertain, but they would not have such prominence among traders if they were not useful.

Bounce plays tend to resolve themselves faster than crosses.Crosses might take some time to actually yield the desired benefits.This week i feature a weekly XBTUSD chart of last 2 years, including a two-year VWAP average with deviation lines.For more than two years bitcoin has been above the 2Y WVAP and in recent weeks has moved far away from this average with a strong upward trend.In the attached chart I included a static resistance at 2900$ that I had calculated in the yearly forecast that I publish each January.It’s unlikely that I’ve called the top for this year and as I said to some users in the comments in one of my previous articles, I think there is room to enter the resistance zone highlighted in the chart.The support zone, if a medium-term correction is made on the weekly chart, is the price range from 1600$ to 2200$.The range for this week is 2330$-2780$ and in case of a catastrophic fall, the usual support area is 1050$-1350$.Rate this: Midweek updated deviation levels and VWAP Price today tested the first positive deviation line (bitstamp data), 2 months VWAP is now at 1789$ and in case of a further drop below it I’ll increase my long term position, from 150 to 175 bitcoins.

RSI oscillator is near the midline (50) and when there are strong uptrends it usually acts as support, i don’t think it will go straight to oversold without a rebound first.Rate this: XBT / USD weekly price range is 2600$-3000$ | Our beloved cross pair XBTUSD slowed its rise last week with a contraction of volatility without being able to stay consistently above 3k USD.However, we must not forget that bitcoin remains in a very strong position since weeks being above the first positive deviation of VWAP and for more than ten days above the second deviation.For this reason, I recently added a fourth line of deviation above VWAP that I normally don’t use, this 4th line defines the upper bound of resistance zone ranging from 3000 to 3400 dollars.I think that XBTUSD cross could reach 3400 dollars this week or the next one considering that all the cryptocurrencies sector is going up massively though bitcoin is the one that is rising at the least speed.I have no sure explanation for this but I could hypothesize that it is because a decent amount of liquidity is flowing into altcoins draining resources from bitcoin.

The average RSI oscillator has returned over the overcrowded area and it is now obvious that in this extreme power situation this oscillator moves from the level defining the overcompatible which is 70 to full saturation around 95-100.In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1350 USD.Rate this: XBT / USD weekly price range at 2100$-2900$ | The VWAP is just below 1700$ and the XBTUSD cross is always above it confirming mid-term bullishness.I have told you many times that when a market is in a very strong position it can move between the first and second price deviation line except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line.From a couple of days back it’s above the second price deviation line and I think that the current rally will continue pushing the bitcoin towards 2900$.The average of the RSI oscillator is just below the overbought area and I think that bitcoin will ignore this indicator that may remain overbought for a certain period of time due to the fact that the dominant timeframe is the weekly one and as mentioned earlier I think this aspect can push bitcoin over the previous maximum of 2750$.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is 1050-1450 USD.Rate this: XBT / USD weekly price range is 1930$ – 2360$ | The 2-month VWAP is slowly rising and is now about  1500$ which is an important support and as long as the price remains above it the underlying trend is be upward.In the last update I mentioned that when a market is very strong it can move between the first and the second line of price deviation from the VWAP except for rare cases where it can be between the second and the third line; after last week’s sell-off the cross XBTUSD moved back between the first and the second deviation line between 1900 and 2400 dollars as you can see in the chart.Considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see bitcoin again above 2400$ by the end of this week, the support area that i consider is 1930$ and as very solid support there is always the VWAP’s even though I think it is more likely that the intermediate support at approximately 1700$ will hold.

In case of extreme fall, the support area is updated to 980$-1350$.Rate this: Kama moving average is a very interesting filtering technique developed by P.Kaufman.This moving average has been designed to account for market noise or volatility, KAMA will closely follow prices when swings are small and the noise is low, instead when the price swings widen KAMA will adjust trying to follow prices from a greater distance.This trend-following indicator can be used to identify the overall trend, time turning points and filter price movements when the market is flat avoiding annoying whipsaw false signals trades.At the moment i’m working on a modified version of this indicator with the help of the tradingview online platform, i added deviation lines from the KAMA average and settings have been optimized to better track XBTUSD price movements on daily and weekly chart.Here’s an example of this indicator applied to a weekly chart of XBTUSD with some comments.It’s evident that when the market is flat the KAMA average is relatively stable without giving false signals, when this happens you can try to trade deviation lines to catch bottoms or tops.

About this week the secondary positive deviation line is around 3200$, should you go short at that level?Well is at your own risk to trade against the main tendency that now is bullish, instead you might follow the trend buying at the midline or below it, i’m enough sure that today sell-off is healthy and the price was just moving back to the midline point (KAMA average) from the first positive deviation line.Beware that because of very large price variation during the same bar the KAMA and its deviation lines can change a bit., just look for “KAMA – Enky v1.0”.Your feedback is highly appreciated and will help me improving this trading tool.Rate this: XBT / USD weekly price range is 2040$ – 2680$.| With this update I introduce an additional deviation line from the 2-months VWAP reference average.The 2-month VWAP may be a bit slow now that XBTUSD is experiencing quite high volatility levels, so for an appropriate price range I decided to introduce the fourth line of deviation.

When a market is very strong it is possible that it moves between the first and second line of deviation that acts as support and resistance defining a price channel.At the moment XBTUSD is moving between the second and the third line and it does not happen very often and if you look the RSI you can see that it is oscillating between the overbought threshold (70) and the maximum value of 95-100, an extreme situation if compared to other financial assets.Fundamentally this is an expanding market that reminds me the exuberance of stock markets from 1996 to 2000, why do I think that?Well just look, for example, at the unsustainable ascension of ethereum, an altcoin that does not have the magic ingredient to solve the scalability problems that all cryptocurrencies have and yet part of the audience perceives this altcoin as different and superior to the others and does not think twice before buying it despite it doubled its value in just six days as well as 20 years ago investors bought technologically overvalued companies that within a few months increased their listing value by two, three times and even more.

Do not get me wrong, because I think the peak is still a few years away but just be careful diversifying in altcoins.Returning to XBTUSD cross and considering the current level of volatility it is not excluded to see it above 2400$ by the end of the week, the support area I consider is around 2040$ but in case of another profit taking support is at 1720$.In case of extreme fall the support area is 850-1200$.Rate this: XBT / USD weekly price range is 1667$ – 1893$ | Last week’s profits taking mean that a possible top has been made at about 1900$, for this week I think the price might remain confined inside the resistance zone shown in the chart (1667$-1890$).Should an increase in volatility materialize it is not excluded that XBTUSD might visit lower levels, for example down to 1440$.The ALMA average is always firmly up and the RSI dropped a bit down to the overbought threshold at 70.A drop to 1450$ would allow the RSI to finally move back to the oversold zone.In case of extreme fall the support area is 800$-1100$.

ITA version here Rate this: LONG TERM LONG | 3 units (50 btc each) bought between May 2014 and October 2015 with an average price of 549$ SHORT TERM No position open I’m still long since May 2014 and considering the recent increase in volatility XBT/USD might reach the optimistic forecast for this year (2900$) of my January update after a confirmed breakout of the 1900$ level.I’m not going to close my position if XBTUSD continues to stay above 1 year VWAP, now at 860$.This long-term trade may remain open for many years until bitcoin will move below the one year VWAP.I might decide to further increase the position if there will be a test of the 2 months VWAP, now at 1200$.Rate this: XBT / USD weekly price range is 1425$-1720$ | I’ve included a short-term view of the last 6 days, i think that XBTUSD will continue to follow the resistance and support lines of the 3 days VWAP.This market, however, seems to remain very bullish together with all the other altcoins.